Chapter 1: Introduction

1.1 Introduction介绍
外国投资者的持续关注一直是泰国在未来几年里对不动产的高额需求。除上述原因外，泰国的房地产市场增长最为重要的是旅游市场对房地产的驱动效应。作为一个佛教国家，泰国享受稳定的社会秩序，开放程度高，相对而言，低收入法律环境。这是一个旅游目的地，在东南亚国家中具有极好的环境。泰国有许多世界著名的旅游城市和景点。曼谷、清迈、帕塔亚和普吉都是最喜欢的背包目的地。泰国的旅游资源非常丰富，文化、宗教也很丰富，寺庙、白色海滩、蓝色海滩和低价优势的独特特征和风格也很独特，可以吸引更多的游客。在一只手上，泰国旅游业的迅速发展导致就业率的迅速增长，基础设施建设的持续改善和经济活力的巨大改善。这自然导致对实际不动产需求的增加，而这又使泰国实际不动产的短缺更为严重，基本上保证了泰国不动产的不可侵犯性。旅游业发展的另一方面，吸引了大量的外国游客，也是引导住房项目朝着“先进”的方向发展，为泰国增添了无形价值的建筑设计、室内装饰、设施的质量。此外，一些买主的养老金需求不断增长，外来买主也很清楚如何通过购买和租赁房屋来赚钱。发展中经济体也愿意与外国投资者合作，以经济力量引入优惠措施，如特许权、关税和折扣，鼓励投资购买和租赁房屋。随着现实和类似的短期服务的出现和世界的其他地方，更多和更多的人选择留在家里，以更多的创新和痛苦的方式体验当地的日常生活，旅游业的不动产投资不仅限于高峰景点。

The continued attention of foreign investors has kept demand for Thai real estate high for years to come. In addition to the reasons mentioned above, the most important thing in Thailand's booming real estate market is the driving effect of tourism market on real estate. As a buddhist country, Thailand enjoys stable social order, high degree of openness and relatively loose legal environment. It is a tourism destination with excellent overall environment among southeast Asian countries. Thailand has many world-famous tourist cities and scenic spots. Bangkok, Chiang mai, pattaya and phuket are all favorite destinations for backpackers. Thailand's tourism resources are very abundant, culture, religion is also quite deep accumulation and unique character and style of temple, white beaches, blue to the sea and the consumption of the advantages of low price to attract a batch of another batch of the influx of tourists. On the one hand, the rapid development of Thailand's tourism industry has brought about a rapid increase in employment, continuous improvement of infrastructure construction and enormous improvement of economic vitality. This naturally leads to an increase in real estate demand, which maintains and exacerbates the shortage of real estate in Thailand and fundamentally guarantees the investability of real estate in Thailand. Tourism development, on the other hand, attracting a large number of foreign tourists, is also driving up the housing project to develop in the direction of the "advanced", the quality of architectural design, interior decoration, facilities, for Thailand property added intangible value. In addition to the growing pension needs of some buyers, foreign buyers are well aware of the ways to make money by buying and renting houses. Developers are also willing to cooperate with foreign investors with economic strength to introduce preferential measures such as charter, custody and repurchase, encouraging investors to buy and rent houses. With reality and similar short rent service appeared and the rest of the world, more and more people choose home stay the more innovative and affordable way to experience the local life daily life, tourism real estate investment has not only confined to the crowded major scenic spots. According to statistics, 70 to 80 percent of people who buy houses in Thailand will choose to rent out their houses for a considerable rent. Thailand's rental market is in short supply and developers are looking for more overseas investors. In recent years, regardless of the policy, market, such as how to change, one thing is for sure, that is in all the investors, Thailand is still the most parts of the world, not only the hotel demand, rising real estate market situation will not change. Thai real estate continues to attract global investors with its low overall prices and high investment returns. The author thinks that the characteristics of Thai real estate that "investment and vacation are suitable" will keep the investment high in the future. The real estate market may be unstable, but the tourist resorts will not depreciate due to time. It is still too late for investors to watch and enter the Thai property market.

Of particular relevancy to the real-estate consumer behavior theory is that of high involvement. Through consumers’ high-involvement with the purchase and its decision making, consumers often feel more satisfied. Nevertheless, the nature of the investors’ high involvement behavior and attitude in real-estate buying decision is unclear. There is simply a lack of empirical research in this topic. Thus, it might be difficult for real-estate property developer to set effective strategies and to provide a fundamental picture for business model. Since the knowledge about the factors influencing high-involvement behaviors in the real-estate purchasing context is still lacking, the researcher find this situation as research opportunity in an academic research and a contribution scope to be filled.

1.2 Motivation动机

随着经济的快速发展，对住房的需求十分旺盛，这不仅局限于新的需求，而且还有大量的改善需求。目前，住房价格的不合理飙升，房地产市场火爆，竞争激烈。房地产企业面临着越来越复杂的因素。系统性风险是房地产企业无法控制的。因此，房地产投资的系统风险是一个亟待研究的课题。

With the rapid development of economy, the demand for housing is very strong, which is not only limited to the new demand, but also a lot of improvement demand. At present, the irrational price of housing skyrocketed, the real estate market is hot, so the competition is fierce. Real estate companies face more and more complex factors. Systemic risk is beyond the control of real estate enterprises. Therefore, the systematic risk of real estate investment is a subject that we urgently need to study.

(1) it is conducive to the stable and healthy development of Thailand's real estate industry. The real estate industry has a high correlation, involving more than 60 jins of industry, which has driven China's economy. The analysis of system risk can help companies to deal with risks flexibly and promote the balanced development of real estate industry.

(2) it can provide theoretical basis for decision makers. Real estate has a long development cycle and a large amount of capital. It also has many risk factors. The identification and analysis of systemic risks help enterprises and investors make correct decisions.

(3) it can guide and guide the behavior of investors. Investors have a clear understanding of the system risk and rational analysis, investment failure is greatly reduced. On the contrary, the loss of investment failure will be greater and greater.

(4) the influence of investment risk on investors. Investors' clear understanding and careful differentiation of system risks can predict the impact of system risks on the investment results, so as to formulate preventive measures to reduce risk losses in advance.

1.3 Objective

In this paper, for the first time on the theory of factor analysis - TOPSIS in the risk assessment analysis of real estate investment system, using the SPSS and matlab statistic tool to Thailand real estate investment risk evaluation system.

1.4 Significance of the Research

Chapter 2： Literature Review

2.1 Related literature

2.1.1 Current status of the real estate markets in Thailand

2.1.1.1In the real estate risk decision making recognition

In the whole process of risk management, risk identification is not the most important. The utility function is used to solve the decision-making and market equilibrium problems under the condition of uncertainty. Perfect the investment theory and method, are analyzed from the points of view of finance, environment will meet during the whole process of real estate investment risk are analyzed, and puts forward the relevant control measures, and the method of how to solve. Studied in different types of real estate investment and decision-making problem is discussed from the real estate environment, factors and target of real estate investment risk analysis of the whole process of investment, mainly combines the principles of real estate investment decision-making process, and put forward the real estate investment decision-making strategy according to the related conclusion. Summarizes Singapore all the risks in the development of the enterprise in the overseas market, and according to send some risk, did we must research and analysis, found the foreign capital enterprise in foreign markets, there will be a political risk as well as the corporate philosophy and architectural style can with the local cultural fusion, had a great influence on enterprise. From the market and the relevant risk perspective, to study the American real estate investment market, and analysis has been made in this study, using VAR risk management techniques, the real estate investment risk evaluation. High leverage is the financing trend of real estate development investment in Romania. Respectively from the political and economic factors on the real estate investment risk are analyzed, the conclusion shows that sustainable development is one of the real estate industry to pay close attention to work, if only pay attention to the effect of short, is bound to have a lot of risks.

2.1.1.2In the real estate risk research evaluation methodology

Western developed countries in order to prevent serious blow to the economy of the project investment risk, the risk factors for effective prevention and control, the fuzzy mathematics is used in the risk assessment, due to the practice and the advantages of the fuzzy mathematics, and with a strong objectivity, W makes the research results have the scientific nature and credibility. This method can be used to quantify qualitative indicators with strong practicability and is well popularized and applied. Combine fuzzy mathematics and logic system, formed a system model, the model can make real estate enterprises or individuals in a real estate under the condition of incomplete information, a clear understanding of the market, and accurate decision making, to know the real situation of the market, reduce all kinds of uncertainty in the process of real estate investment risk of loss. In 2009, risks of construction projects were divided into endogenous and exogenous ones. The risk factors were divided by analytic hierarchy process (ahp), and then the risk evaluation of construction project was carried out by using fuzzy hierarchy process (ahp). In order to make real estate investment decision more effective, an investment model M based on projective tracing (PP) is proposed. The improved monte carlo simulation method is used to make the investment decision more feasible. He simulated the whole process of real estate development and evaluated the possible risks. This method is applicable to two kinds of idleness conditions. First, incomplete data and missing data. The second is that some risk factors do not adapt. Based on the real estate investment risk has carried on the summary and analysis in detail, and the correlation analysis method after a thorough comparison and discussion, put forward the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method used in the field of real estate investment. The fuzzy mathematics theory and analytic hierarchy process (ahp) are applied comprehensively. By summarizing the risks encountered in an investment and construction project in Iran that year, the system is established for evaluation. From risk reason, based on the general rules and characteristics of real estate investment risk analysis, combined the analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, used to carry out the qualitative analysis, to determine the main risk factors; The other method in this paper, the expert rating method, makes the factors quantified and makes the article more scientific. Then the author establishes an evaluation model to analyze the risk and find out the impact of real estate investment risk factors by sorting them out. Accurately and carefully understand the impact of risk indicators on the investment process. According to the theory of grey prediction model method, from the aspects of area of sale of real estate investment, construction area and, through the analysis of the regional markets of the past information and artful, predict the future market for several years. However, the actual value of the past analysis is quite different from that of the theoretical method, so this method has strong adaptability and can obtain accurate results. Most importantly, the method of escape model can help the government to predict the future real estate market and put forward reasonable and effective macro-control policies. The object of study is a large real estate development enterprises, the risk index system, using the method of innovation for the qualitative indexes, and then the scientific method for quantitatively, the results is will encounter in the process of development investment risk, but must through the external financing ability to digest these risks, and it also pay attention to cash flow financial indicators, such as the existence of the scale of the board of directors and board of supervisors objective indicators.

2.1.1.3On the theoretical side of periodic wave theory of real estate

Urbanization in developed countries has basically completed now, steady economic growth, policies and regulations more perfect, so foreign scholars research more artful real estate cycle fluctuation theory and the theory of the real estate bubble. Using vertical and horizontal two aspects to analyze the real estate, longitudinal refers to the analysis of a few years the development of real estate law, transverse refers to the analysis of different parts of the real estate, but after that the real estate market exists strong inflation. Taking office buildings as the target, the vacancy situation observed, the number of employees employed, etc., and taking this as the indicator, the office buildings of each cycle of real estate take different forms of market conditions. The research object is the entire residential market in the United States. Taking the quarter as the period, the sales price as the indicator is selected and the data is used to build the model. Based on the regional character of real estate and the theory of market flow, the market in different places is analyzed. The results show that regional real estate prices change according to the market cycle and market flow, which is obvious and different. Strategic assessment and real estate investment and construction as the starting point, combined with the real estate cyclical characteristics, the pre-measured period of the measurable. Taking the real estate market of Lithuania as the research object, through the analysis of historical data and the application of certain statistical methods, it is concluded that the real estate cycle of Lithuania is 3 years. Germany's real estate market as the research object, analyzes the influential elements of the housing real estate cycle, the conclusion is affecting the market trends, supply and demand relations thus to it will produce certain effect, and must carry on the reasonable investment portfolio, can to a certain control cycle.

2.3 Real estate investment risk theory

2.3.1General theory of risk

Risk is an objective manifestation of the uncertainty about the unwillingness to happen. "Both have done some research on risk, defined it and concluded that risk is the difference between the expectation and the actual benefit of investors' decisions. Risk research has concluded that the meaning of risk should include :(1) risk is not just uncertainty, it will be different; (2) risk is not subjective but objective. (3) risks are not illusory, but can be measured by certain scientific means. We usually use the function R = f(P, C) to represent the possible consequences of the risk. The risk is expressed as gen, P as the probability of bad consequences, and C as the consequence. Normally the bigger R is, the greater the risk is. The measurement of objective probability and subjective probability. The former is based on the probability calculated from actual data in the past. The latter is not possible in the first case and is handled in a reasonable manner based on limited information and experience.

2.3.2Characteristics of risk

Real estate investment refers to the development and operation of real estate with a certain amount of capital invested for the purpose of obtaining real estate income. Real estate investment is the basis of real estate development and management, and its result is to form new available real estate or transform the original real estate. Due to the characteristics of anti-inflation and predictable risk, real estate investment has gradually become one of the most attractive investment methods. In the process of the investment activity, the benefits and risks are exist at the same time, especially in the government's focus on the real estate industry under the situation of regulation stage, real estate investment risk is unavoidable. From the point of view of real estate investment, real estate investment risk can be defined as did not get the size of the expected return possibility, the risk of real estate investment mainly reflects in the safety of the money, the reliability of the expected revenue, the complexity of the investment project of liquidity and asset management four aspects.

The primacy of risk is the nature of risk and its occurrence rule. To prevent risk, we should first understand risk. Risk has the following characteristics:

(1) objective existence

Risk is not transferred by object will, independent of object will and exists objectively. However, the risk is the possibility of loss caused by the uncertainty of itself or environmental factors, such as natural disasters, economic, policy and cultural environment changes. Risks are everywhere. Individuals or enterprises can only reduce the frequency and loss range of risks through long-term experience or scientific methods, but cannot eliminate risks completely.

(2) uncertainty

Uncertainty means that the occurrence of an event or the generation of a decision is unpredictable in advance, or that the event or decision cannot determine the outcome. For real estate risk, uncertainty is the difference between the expected return and the actual return. The effects of uncertainty, some years small project data deviation, inflation, technological progress and the change of market supply and demand or other external effect may cause the generation of uncertainty. So play seriously, analyze and refine.

(3) relativity

The risks are real. But the existence of things has its relativity. First, there must be a reference to any risk. For example, exchange rate risk is a potential risk for foreign investors, while there is little risk for domestic investors. Investors' subjective differences result in different risks when the exchange rate increases roughly the same. Secondly, risks exist objectively, but they can be reduced by scientific methods. Only by being familiar with the theories and judgment methods of risks can they be avoided or resolved successfully.

(4) predictability

Predictability is the analysis of certain risks based on past experience and historical data, and the adoption of measures to control their occurrence and avoid economic losses. The risk is uncertain, but the risk is predictable, and now it is mainly analyzed qualitatively and quantitatively. Qualitative analysis is used to determine the nature and source of investment risk, and quantitative analysis is to quantify the risk with the most reasonable mathematical method. People can avoid and prevent risks through the predictability of risks.

(5) the symmetry of risks and benefits

In traditional economics, risk and earnings are considered to be positively correlated. Generally speaking, the higher the risk, the greater the benefit. As a common attribute of all living things in the world, the enemy investors are willing to take big risks only when they predict a relatively high return. The size of investment risk depends on the investors' cognition and judgment on the risk and return.

2.3.3 The definition and characteristics of real estate investment risk

Investment risk refers to the loss caused by the investor's failure to predict the risk in the process of investment. The seed loss is the difference between the actual return of the investor and the expected return. The real estate investment risk refers to the degree of deviation between the expected return of developers and the actual return caused by the influence of political, economic, cultural and social factors. Real estate investment risk is a kind of risk. Besides the same characteristics as risk, it also includes such characteristics as comprehensiveness, diversity, poor liquidity and compensation. Real estate is a comprehensive very strong industry, has been up and down and including construction, building materials industry, property management, media, tourism, finance and so on more than 30 industries, and from the market analysis to the project decision, the land, planning, construction, sales at the end of the property, each link is complicated, need to be harmonious and unified. The problems in one link may cause the delay of the later link or even great economic loss. Because the real estate industry is a comprehensive very strong, each link can cause the risk of produce, the risk will be present diversity, has the potential risk policies and regulations, regional culture, not sincere risk, economic risk, financial risk, technology risk, natural risk, etc.; The real estate market is a capital intensive, long development cycle in the market, and there is information asymmetry, incomplete market, relative to other risks, it cannot be converted into cash at any time, and time value is risky, so its liquidity is poorer; The real estate industry is also an industry with high risk and relatively high returns, so investors are willing to take big risks only when they predict a relatively high return. Investors can expect higher returns if they anticipate risk ahead of time and use it correctly. The coexistence of risks and profits makes many investors willing to spend a lot of money to learn to understand risks and improve the knowledge system of risk management so as to obtain higher profits.

2.3.4Real estate investment risk types

The real estate market develops rapidly, but the uncertain factors lead to the constant risk and the real estate market is extremely unstable. The decline in people's purchasing power, changes in interest rates and the introduction of national policies will have an impact on all real estate projects across the country. When an enterprise's debt matures, it does not have enough cash to repay it, the risk of future operating expenses, the risk of holding period, etc., and some risks will only affect a certain enterprise or project. The former risk cannot be eliminated by any investor, while the latter risk can be controlled by the developer or investor by some means. This paper divides real estate investment risk according to portfolio theory and capital asset pricing model. It divides real estate investment risk into system risk and non-system risk, and divides it into whether it can be avoided or eliminated remotely, and whether it affects the whole real estate market. Real estate investment face above all is systemic risk, it is to point to investors is not easy to identify, impact on the real estate market, is unable to avoid and eliminate: rather than systemic risk, also known as specific risk, refers to the investors can through certain hand portfolio to eliminate, only the risk of impact on individual enterprises or projects. But investors should not only study risk aversion, transfer methods to reduce or eliminate unsystematic risk, more to understand the real estate market from the macro level and the cycle of development and national policy of regularity, so as to improve the forecasting ability of the risk, ready to reduce the risk in advance.

2.3.5Real estate investment risk analysis method

2.3.5.1 qualitative analysis method

2.3.5.1.1 expert meeting method

Expert meeting is refers to the selection, determine the number of experts, invite relevant experts, the creation loose atmosphere, in the form of a meeting, to an event, management, production, product, technology and its development prospect. On the basis of experts' analysis and judgment, the experts combined their opinions and made a quantitative forecast on the market demand of this product and the gold industry and its changing trend. There are also some drawbacks. The number of experts attending the meeting is limited but not representative, and the opinions of the meeting may be influenced by authoritative experts.

2.3.5.1.2 Delphi method

Delphi method is also known as expert group method. In accordance with the prescribed procedures, using anonymous way, distribute the consultation table, 10-50 people choose to have professional knowledge of experts, to replace the public meetings, privately consult experts, expert advice and adequately so bold, published several rounds of consultation and discussion repeatedly, different tend to agree, finally the results of processing, and then predicted results, prepare the report. This method has strong feedback, anonymous publication and consistent statistical results.

2.3.5.1.3 screen analysis

Scene analysis is to make assumptions about possible future situations or events. What might happen in the future when a factor emerges? What's the best thing about it? What is the most likely scenario? And the worst? What are the consequences? Scene after scene in the drama for investors to imagine and analyze. Real estate investors can use this method to observe the national policies and the possible impact on enterprises or projects, so as to prevent and control risks in advance.

 

2.3.5.2 quantitative analysis method

2.3.5.2.1 break-even analysis

Break-even analysis is a method to study the balance relationship between various factors, also called break-even critical analysis. These factors include the total amount of development, investment, cost, product price, tax, and profits of real estate projects. All kinds of uncertainties will affect the economic effect of its developer's investment plan. To find BEP, i.e., break-even point, is the purpose of sending a method, so as to judge whether the project can be realized.

2.3.5.2.2 sensitivity analysis

Sensitivity analysis is to analyze uncertain factors, to observe the extent of their change, and to the extent of their impact on the programme economy. One of the most influential factors is called sensitivity factor. It is divided into single factor and multifactor sensitivity analysis. Sensitivity analysis enables investors to judge the ability of a project to withstand risks while fully understanding project risks.

2.3.5.2.3 probability analysis

Also known as risk analysis, the probability of the occurrence of uncertain factors is used to determine the impact of different factors on the whole project, so as to judge the quality and feasibility of the project. It is an uncertain analytical method and is often used in the decision-making of large and medium-sized important projects.

2.3.5.3 monte carlo simulation method

Monte carlo simulation is a method based on probability statistics, also called computer stochastic simulation. The idea of this method is to solve a problem by an experimental method and get its probability or mathematical expectation. 2.3.5.4 analytic hierarchy process

Analytic hierarchy process (ahp) is a kind of the qualitative index into quantitative index is administrative decision-making method, through the establishment of the target layer, layer and rule layer formulating a decision problem, and then compare the weight of each criterion for the target effect size, and finally the weights of comprehensive determine the scheme of criterion layer. People in decision making, experience judgment alone tend to appear deviation, judgment, artistic factors, more prone to error, the W this method is concise, flexible fields has been very widely used. 

 

2.3.5.5 fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method

Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is a comprehensive evaluation mathematical model based on the concept of fuzzy mathematics. Its nuclear also principle is to determine the evaluation index, and then determine the weight of each factor and subordinate vector, get the judgment matrix, then fuzzy arithmetic and normalized, obtained as a result, to select the superior object from the object set.

 

Risk of real estate investment system, involves more evaluation index, the data is relatively complex, want to find out to represent common factor of the same kind of variables, and the common factor for good good measure, analysis, ranking, and relevant conclusions, factor analysis is to many variables classification quickly, make with variable to nature, and different qualitative variables apart due to the correlation coefficient is very low; The TOPSIS method focuses on the quantitative ranking of the public factor analysis results obtained by us. Factor analysis - TOPSIS method is an effective method for comprehensive evaluation in this paper.

2.3.6Real estate investment characteristics and investment risk

(1) real estate immobility and investment risk

Immobility is the inherent property of real estate, and it is also the most obvious characteristic that real estate differs from other property. So real estate is also called real estate. Fixed position, resulting in the real estate can not be mechanized mass production, there is no one exactly the same house in the world, so, in the perspective of sending seeds, the house is a rare commodity. Location is the most important factor in real estate. Real estate is location, location, location. House prices in urban and suburban fringe areas, obviously, must be much higher in the central district. Even if the two houses are built internally, the external shape is the same, and there are surrounding supporting facilities, floors, landscape and other influences. The immobility of real estate leads to another feature of real estate - regional. Therefore, when selecting real estate investment projects, developers must consider the risk of geographical environment caused by the immobility of real estate.

2) huge capital and investment risk

One of the characteristics of the real estate market is that it is capital intensive. It needs to invest a lot of capital in the whole process of development to meet the smooth development. From the investment opportunity of choice and decision analysis, plus or minus, project approval and construction, determine the planning design, planning permission, bidding, construction of the construction of the project application, construction to sales management, every step will consume large amounts of money. First of all, the selection and decision of investment opportunity, which affects the profitability of the whole project, is the most important stage in the whole development and construction process. The developer will employ a professional team to conduct a complete and comprehensive analysis of the proposed project, including valuation, planning and lawyer team. Followed by the Lord to obtain, developers through action in the form of auction, the state-owned land use rights, the average sale price will be greater than the bidding and quotation, for the Lord, will naturally have a main land transfer fund. However, due to the increasingly scarce land, land price is increasingly high, from several hundred square meters to tens of thousands of square meters, more and more land Kings are born. Costs generally account for 20% or more of the total cost of the development process. Then, in the process of building construction, the cost of humanized materials increases, making the construction cost increase. The cost of the period is about 40% of the total cost. Finally, labor management expenses, planning expenses, marketing expenses, taxes and fees during development and operation all need to occupy a large amount of capital. Investors do not swim in such high amounts of their own capital and often borrow from Banks, so they face huge capital risks. The success of this link is related to the success of the whole development project.

 

3) long period and investment risk

So this property makes real estate investment long-term. But real estate also has an economic and natural life span, and the longer the cycle, the greater the risk. During delivery, time is an uncertain factor, and the time risk is unpredictable. If there is inflation, its economic life could be shortened. Moreover, during the project development cycle, the external environment, such as politics, economy, market supply and demand, will change with the change of any one factor. The longer the cycle, the more obvious the seeding effect will be. The risk to developers is that the market is weak and commercial housing is empty.

2.4 Risk factor analysis of real estate investment system

For systemic risk, also called undiversifiable risk, literally means cannot avoid the risk of individual investment risk in the investment inside is to spread the risk, the offset. Generally speaking, it refers to the risk of some negative economic impact caused by an economic event. When real estate investors enter the real estate market, they first face systemic risks.

The first stage, bubble generation and real estate risk generation stage; Overheated real estate investment or speculation leads to the excessive growth of housing prices, which seriously deviates from their real value, leading to the lack of support for prices and the emergence of bubbles.

The second stage is the irrational expansion and risk transfer of the real estate bubble. Financial institutions and investors entered the real estate market in the process of mortgages and loans. The risks caused by the real estate bubble spread to financial institutions, and the risks were transferred to financial institutions.

The third stage is the bursting of the real estate bubble and the spreading of risks. Turning a corner is a severe oversupply in the real estate market. If the supply is turned over, the vacancy rate will increase.

2.4.1Inflation risk

Inflation risk is also called purchasing power risk, refers to the price level over a period of time, the continuous rapid increase of state, the Angle of investment, to recover the money is far less than the real value of the investment risks. The potential factors causing inflation may be money supply, output level, economic subject expectation, monetary policy, cost and economic structure. There is an investment cycle in the real estate market, in which, if there is inflation factor at any stage, real estate investors will face inflation risk. In a certain economic system, there is a certain relationship between the inflation rate and the interest rate, that is, the expected inflation rate rises, and the interest rate often rises. Due to the actual yield = nominal yield - the rate of inflation, if produce inflation, the inflation rate increases, direct investment real yields are low, inflation risk investment in real estate investors influence is very big, more importance to it. Adjusting the nominal rate of return W according to the actual situation makes the inflation risk have less impact on the real rate of return. Investors accept lower yields because real estate prices have risen so much that inflation is much lower than in the same period.

2.4.2Market supply risk

Market supply and demand risk refers to the risk that investors will encounter when the supply and demand relationship of the real estate market changes within a certain region. The real estate market is cyclical, the supply and demand also produces change, thus causes the real estate price fluctuations, it makes the actual income and expected return of real estate investment produces deviation. Even lead to the real estate of serious structural surplus in the market, the housing backlog, the vacancy rate rose, it will let the real estate investor capital chain appear serious problems, severe cases can lead to bankruptcy of real estate investors. The real estate market is regional, and changes in the local economy, policies, society and other environments have a much greater impact on it than the overall national environment. Therefore, the healthy development of regional economy is necessary for the real estate supply and demand market. The real estate market is a market with unbalanced information. Due to the existence of information deficiency, each investor has his own understanding and unique perspective on the real estate market. The purpose of investment is to obtain future returns, so the intensity of market investment is determined by the real estate investors' expectation of the potential value of real estate. Real estate investors can refer to the local historical supply and demand situation through the data. According to the real estate periodicity, they can use scientific methods to analyze the results, so as to reduce the risk of market supply and demand.

2.4.3Cycle risk

The real estate market has its periodicity, so the risk also presents its risk. Cycle risk is the risk brought by regular fluctuation of market economy. Cyclical fluctuations in the housing market go through four stages: recession, recovery, expansion and contraction. From the real estate market expansion into the tightening phase, at this time there will be a fall in property prices, volume dropped sharply reduce, investment, project the phenomenon such as smaller, real estate investors will produce a lot of damage. At this time, it depends on the capital level and strength of the enterprise itself. Some real estate investors will go bankrupt because of the broken capital chain and withdraw from the real estate market.

2.4.4Liquidation risk

Liquidity risk refers to the risk of capital loss due to special circumstances and the rush to cash the goods. Real estate is not moving, with regional, no replication and value is big, will meet its property right is not easy to a short period of time, time value, make investors lose out.

2.4.5Interest rate risk

Interest rate risk is the risk that the country raises or lowers the interest rate through macro-control, which will bring to investors. In this way, the country can guide funds to achieve a regulatory purpose. Raising interest rates, the use of discounted cash flow formula, actual value decreases, and the financial net present value may be negative, and interest rates rose high, investors have no more capital, nor for large amount of money lent, even before you have loans, investors still have a series of risks, there may be a repayment difficulties. Practice, we have seen a lot of case, real estate investors will risk shifting to Banks and other institutions, through to get a fixed rate mortgages, in that case, investors may be at risk, not only the bank will suffer even greater risk.

2.4.6Policy risk

In order to ensure the normal development of the real estate market, the state, according to the market situation, timely issued policies for regulation. National or local government through the control of land supply, adjustment of taxes and fees, interest rates rise or fall, restricted or limited credit, achieve the goal of macroeconomic regulation and control, so if the national macroeconomic regulation and control real estate investors don't in-depth, will produce a great risk, produces the loss of money.

2.4.7Political risk

When the national war, political changes, the phenomenon such as strikes, riots, because real estate is the real estate, immovable property makes the property damage, which pose a risk to investors, and the risk of harm is very big, can be fatal, and investors can change more impossible to avoid a risk.

2.4.8 Risk of probable loss

The occurrence of natural disasters is beyond human control and cannot be predicted. Fire, flood and tsunami will cause damage to houses and economic losses. Part of investors to own real estate into the insured, but the policy is not cover all of the disaster, although investors can be insured for all projects, but these insurance and the amount will be higher. The natural and economic life of real estate will disappear at the same time. If the house has a lease, the expected rental income will also disappear. Therefore, this part of risk is also a kind of disaster that investors cannot predict through data and certain scientific methods.

Real estate investment risk prevention and treatment is aimed at different types, different probability and the size of the risk, the corresponding measures and methods, to avoid the real estate investment risk, to reduce risk to the lowest degree in the process of real estate investment.

(a) real estate enterprises should attach great importance to the feasibility study of investment, do scientific decision-making and democratic decision-making of real estate enterprises feasibility study is carried out on the proposed investment project a comprehensive technical and economic analysis, this is any investment real estate and other indispensable a stage in the early stage of the construction projects. Because real estate investment is a long-term process of wide range and complex process, there are a lot of uncertain risk factors, with mature and saturated market, increase the risk of real estate investment, through the feasibility study will provide a scientific basis for decision-making for the investors. In the whole process of real estate development, feasibility study is the most critical step in the process of real estate investment, and it is also the stage with the greatest uncertainty and mobility. Once the real estate investment is carried out, it will face a relatively narrow consumer market, which is of great risk. Appraisal of real estate investment project feasibility, under the guidance of real estate investors want to be in the city planning act, according to the real estate market supply and demand situation and development trend, determine the purpose of the investment project, size, type, demand for the development cost, price, etc. To these predictions is facing a lot of uncertain factors, directly affect the success of real estate investment projects.

(2) collect and analyze the market information fully, draw lessons from foreign mature experience in real estate project investment risk is bigger one of the reasons is the lack of information, there is no perfect information network and the information sharing mechanism. The ownership and mastery of real estate information have a very important influence on the real estate development decision. Real estate developers should try to collect information and make a more accurate grasp and forecasting, full market survey analysis, make scientific project decisions, try to avoid and reduce the risk of a subsequent development. At present, China's real estate market has entered the period of industrial shock adjustment. In the next two years, it will enter the lost period of the real estate market, and the increase of housing price will decrease. Rising prices has aroused high attention of the country, the relevant departments have been from many aspects, such as rates, taxes and market to regulate the real estate market, therefore, the development enterprise to adjust the development train of thought, to the market changes should have adequate prediction.

(3) accurately grasp the real estate cycle fluctuation, choose reasonable entry point real estate periodic fluctuation is the result of market supply and demand relationship between sports and the way, is also part of the macro economic cycle fluctuation. Influenced by macro economic cycle, real estate cycle is divided into recovery and the development, prosperity, four stages, the crisis and the recession, depression, and macro economic operation cycle fluctuations in the same direction, but on the volatility of time and intensity differences. Because the fluctuation of the real estate market price is affected by the economic cycle, when the economy is overheated, the real estate price rises in a bubble, so the investment timing is especially important. This choice contains two meanings, one is to choose the right investment time, the other is to determine a reasonable investment cycle. Invest your time when market conditions are in your best interest. If the market price of real estate rises irrationally, investors can consider shortening the investment cycle. The key is to see the opportunity to enter the market. When real estate leading indicators have obvious changes, similar savings from cycle bottom began to rebound, loan interest rates from peak began to decline, and state transfer land use rights from cycle trough began to rebound, forecast into the expansion phase, in the real estate cycle at this time should be the best investment opportunity, can focus on investing.

(4) the real estate enterprises should consider to choose portfolio for real estate enterprises capital strength, want to consider the combination of the real estate investment, namely on the basis of the subdivision of the real estate market, the choice of different types of real estate and investment opportunity for portfolio investment. We can consider the combination of the investment term, the organic collocation of high school and low grade real estate, the diversification of investment area, the combination of different USES of real estate and so on. Real estate portfolio investment is not fixed, any impact on the real estate market price when the event occurred or is about to happen, real estate enterprises need to adapt to the situation, timely make judgments, analysis, adjust the structure of the real estate portfolio.

(5) establish insurance policy for real estate enterprises, efforts to transfer and to circumvent the risk of real estate investment who buy insurance is very necessary, it is one of main methods to transfer or reduce the risk of real estate investment. Insurance plays an important role in mitigating or compensating the loss of real estate investors, realizing the circulation of funds and ensuring the profits of real estate investors. Especially for the credibility of real estate investors, the development of real estate management activities has a positive role. Generally speaking, the real estate insurance business mainly includes housing insurance, property insurance, housing mortgage insurance and real estate entrustment insurance. Real estate investors should be fully considered when buying insurance, real estate investors need insurance danger to plant, determine the appropriate insurance amount, the reasonable division of risk unit, select a few factors, such as reputable insurance companies. Real estate portfolio strategy is based on real estate investment to investors in the degree of risk and profitability, according to certain principles to invest properly collocation a variety of different types of real estate investment strategy in order to reduce the investment risk. For example, real estate developers can invest part of their capital in ordinary residential buildings and part of their investment in high-end office buildings. Because the investment risk of all kinds of different types of real estate is different, the income is different. Greater return on investment risk is relatively high, low rate of return of investment risk is relatively lower, if money respectively on the basis of different real estate development will reduce the overall investment risk, its essence is to use the high yield of individual real estate investment make up for the loss of low income of real estate, end up with an average income. The key of real estate investment portfolio is how to determine the reasonable proportion of investment in different types of real estate.

2.2 Theoretical Model

Factor analysis

Its main idea is, as far as possible in the condition of raw data is not missing, the data dimension reduction, the correlation of a large number of variables exist, according to the original data matrix, found in large amounts of data, relevant, and place them high correlation variables together, form a class, inductive together variable correlation is higher, on the other hand, is low. Each class variable is represented as a "common factor", which is an inherent relationship to discover the seed delivery structure and then explain the meaning of each factor. The hypothetical variable in this is an unobservable potential variable that can be found in large amounts of data. Of course, the fewer variables there are, the easier it is to deal with.

OPSIS model

The basic idea of OPSIS model is: to normalization of the original data matrix, then the best and the worst vector, and then separately for each evaluation objects and the direction of the best and the worst of distance, evaluation target and the optimal scheme is relatively close, the program can be evaluated.

Steps

1. Data entry

2. Test the applicability of the analysis index

3. Get the common factor component matrix

4. Computational factor weight

5. Ranking by OPSIS method

6. On the progress of rankings and results into a correlation

 

2.3 Hypothesis

2.3.1 Risk index analysis of real estate investment system

2.3.1.1 House price growth rate/GDP growth rate

GDP growth rate is the annual growth rate of the value of domestic production, which is the main indicator of macro-economy. GDP, full name is the domestic production of idle value, which is used to measure of national economic situation refers to in a certain time period, national or local economy in the sum of labor and labor product. Generally speaking, GDP is positively correlated with the economy, and the inflated GDP is completely inflated, which cannot represent the level of economic development. The rapid development of real estate industry, cannot leave the government's strong support, the government in the real estate economy, land use right transfer the king, because of the scarcity in the land of the king, the king of the land of the auction price is higher and higher, so that the house prices rise rapidly, because the real estate industry is a very high correlation industry, drive the other industry, raise the price level of other industries, so the region's GDP will rise rapidly. Real estate industry of high profits, attracts a lot of developers to create, 1 ^ as for supply, the lie is a little high a. a. mouth is not real. On the basis of economic law, there is no market of real estate prices to fall, and long-term securities without city would lead investors to fund chain scission, and no support of the real economy, GDP fell back quickly, an economic recession. Real estate price growth rate/GDP growth rate is used to observe the trend of the development of the real estate bubble, is refers to the real estate price match the GDP growth is, determine prices deviate degree of GDP. In general, the closer the real estate price/GDP growth rate is to 1, the better. The higher the ratio, the more likely there is a bubble. The real estate price growth rate/GDP growth rate does not have an accurate threshold. The academic community thinks that for Thailand, the real estate price increase rate/GDP growth rate is greater than 1. 

2.3.1.2 House price growth rate/CP1 rate

CPI, the consumer price index, is an indicator closely related to people's lives and used to measure inflation. The purchasing scope of residents is restricted by CPI, which also affects the cost of business management. Moreover, the development of the country's economic policies will also affect the CPI. CPI is positively correlated with inflation. The faster the CPI increases, the more serious the economic phenomenon of inflation is. Generally speaking, when the CPI increase rate is greater than 3%, inflation is already formed. When CPI increases by more than 5%, inflation is already very serious. But inflation is not the same as the increase in consumer price index, which is just a manifestation of inflation. Inflation could not theoretically be negative, but it could be negative. If the increase is too large, it shows that the economy is inflation, but inflation is likely to become a destabilizing factor in the economy, in order to ensure the stability of the economy, congress would take a certain austerity (contractionary monetary or fiscal policy or both), economic development is not too optimistic. Therefore, the market does not accept the high CPI growth rate.

 

2.3.1.3Ratio of house price to income

It is the perspective of residents, using income to measure whether there is a bubble in house prices an important indicator. Today, the world's accepted reasonable range for this indicator is greater than 2 and less than 6. If the index is greater than 6, there is a bubble.

 

2.3.1.4 Vacancy rate

The rapid development of real estate industry, the price and vacancy rates are rising, in accordance with the normal economic theory, when the supply is greater than the demand, the real estate market cold and cheerless, produce a large number of vacant homes, real estate prices will follow market mechanisms and decline; When the supply is less than the demand, the quantity of existing commercial housing cannot meet the needs of the residents, but the price will rise. This "double height" phenomenon is a unique phenomenon in Thailand. There may be reasons for this; Product positioning is wrong, the market is saturated, national policy restrictions, poor publicity or reluctance to sell in order to raise prices. Vacancy rate is a major indicator of the healthy development of the real estate market. At present, there is no standard algorithm for vacancy rate.

 

2.3.1.5 Residential land price growth rate

Progress in the country, in urban development, and the residential land price rate should be the overall upward trend, the rise is common sense, is an important basis to test whether the bubble. Land price should increase with the increase of GDP, per capita income, CPI and foreign investment, which indicates the normal development of land price. On the contrary, if over a period of time the price of land rises too fast, and the demand exceeds the supply. This phenomenon will not last long, and what follows is a sharp fall in the price of the main land.

 

2.3.1.6 The ratio of housing sales growth to the growth rate of social consumer goods

Residential sales are a manifestation of the overall demand for real estate in the whole society. The real estate industry develops rapidly, and the growth rate of residential sales/social retail sales should be slightly greater than 1. If the rapid growth of housing sales is seriously out of sync with the growth of consumer goods, it means that there is a real estate bubble. Generally speaking, if the ratio is below 2, there is no real estate bubble. If it's greater than 2 and less than 3, there's a mild bubble; Greater than 3 is a severe bubble.

 

2.3.1.7 Growth rate of development investment

Development investment rate refers to the rate of increase in investment compared with the previous year. He can be used to observe the effectiveness of the housing bubble. Real estate industry is a national fundamental industry, so the reasonable investment to the real economy of the country is to have certain positive role, such as the current society, the real estate investment cause imbalance of supply and demand, and even the production of a large number of empty apartments, serious, will cause the city planning and construction element. Long development rights investment rate is used to represent the development of the real estate market scale, which can be concluded that the real estate market bubble size, the higher the index, the greater the risk means that the real estate market bubble.

 

2.3.1.8 The proportion of development investment in GDP

From this index, we can know whether the real estate investment is overheated, whether the country has too high expectation on the housing price, and whether the investment structure between industries is not in line with the common sense. A reasonable increase in the rate of real estate investment can lead to healthy economic growth, but if it increases; If the rate is too high, it will lead to the unhealthy development of the national economic system. It may also lead to the housing shortage and waste of resources. Chinese scholars generally believe that it is normal for real estate development investment/GDP to be less than 10%. Bubbles may start to bubble between 10% and 15%; If more than 15%, the real estate development investment bubble is more serious.

 

2.3.1.9 The proportion of development investment in fixed assets investment

Investment in fixed assets refers to economic activities such as construction, transformation and investment of non-monetary assets that have been used for production and operation of enterprises for more than one year. Its renovation and expansion activities are all covered in this category and are an important aspect of fixed asset investment in the whole society. Although it is a non-monetary asset, but it is in the form of money to reflect its value, as various forms of construction labor. It is also a comprehensive indicator reflecting social development and national economy. Development investment/fixed asset investment is used to show whether the amount of capital invested in real estate development investment is reasonable. Real estate development investment/send whole social fixed assets investment is a reasonable balance of the real estate market development important indicator, and also illustrates the real estate investment size and the relationship between the total asset investment in the whole society. If this ratio is too large, it means that real estate investment will take up more funds, and other forms of investment will be weakened, which will lead to the continuous lack of social and economic development. The ratio below 25% is a reasonable range. If it is not within this range, it can be speculated that the investment structure is not reasonable and there is a bubble in the national or local real estate market.

There are n indicators, each of which has m observation values, and the original data is written as the matrix V = (Vi) ,

Vm)

(1) standardize the original data;

(2) calculate the correlation matrix and conduct principal component analysis of R;

(3) the eigenvalue for R B1 < B2 <... Bp and its corresponding eigenvectors are determined by two methods

Where, W can be determined according to the size of the eigenvalue, and generally take the eigenvalue greater than I, or W can use the accumulative variance tribute

The contribution rate of general accumulated variance is over 80%.

(4) find the load matrix A of P common factors, A = [A] MXP;

(5) calculate the final score fi of each kind of public factor, and calculate P common of each sample after determining the variable

Cofactor score;

(6) calculate the comprehensive evaluation index value, namely the comprehensive factor score;

(7) multiply factor score and factor contribution rate to get the weight of each factor.

Chapter 3: Methodology  

3.1 Research design

(1) method of combining theory with practice: the academic community has a relatively mature approach to the theory and practice of systematic risks of real estate investment, but the two have not been effectively combined. This paper starts from the theoretical research, collects and arranges the data scientifically, and then analyzes the data scientifically, which is convenient to combine with practice.

(2) qualitative analysis combined with quantitative analysis method: firstly, qualitative method is used to collect risk indicators of real estate investment system by reading various literatures, and establish an indicator system; Then the corresponding data are collected and processed, and the conclusion is drawn by scientific and mathematical methods.

(3) With the method of factor analysis - TOPSIS: for the first time to apply this method in the field of risk analysis of real estate system, it is concluded that the weight of each index by applying the method of factor analysis empowerment, reuse of TOPSIS buried theory in each of the index is analyzed, finally it is concluded that sorting, analysis conclusion.

3.2 Population and sample

3.3 Data analysis

Chapter 4: Research results

Chapter 5: Discussion and recommendation

Chapter 6: Conclusion

 

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